Ok, probably wouldn't be writing had the news not showed some promising numbers (aside from expected reports of voting problems)
Indiana is showing promise. Many more counties, especially in the center of the state, going blue compared to 00 and 04.
A good site to graphically compare against what the news programs are showing.
Some numbers from 538.
Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry -- which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.
Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%
UPDATE
Didn't look as promising in KY. Not that Obama didn't win. But he lost a lot of counties in the eastern side (the side closest to WV) compared to what Kerry got in 04. Ick, sounds like the racists have spoken.
Florida, however, is rocking Obama, with more red counties turning blue around the St. Pete and south-central counties. Plus, the blue counties in 04 are staying that way. Sweeeet.
UPDATE
Virginia....losing counties in SW Va, bordering KY...gaining counties in the NOVA area. The counties Obama is getting are much higher in population than the others. Truly, a shift in the electoral map, even beyond macroscopic levels shown in the state by state results.
UPDATE
WV....Kanawha and Randolph flipped to Obama. Mingo flipped to red...sorry SamC, guess the "Mingoloids" are on your side this time...hehe. Also got Raleigh (Beckley) and Monongahalia (Morgantown). These counties have colleges (Mtn State, WVU), as do Kanawha (UC, WVState) and Randolph (Davis Elkins). Maybe had an impact.
Ooops, Raleigh flipped back to red, but Boone stayed blue. One chink in the college hypothesis.
UPDATE
Montgomery Co in Virginia flipped to Obama...home of VT...maybe this college hypothesis is moving up to theory territory. But WV counties I mentioned earlier are changing....hmmm, I should just fucking wait a bit. All these maps and colors have gotten me to nerd out too much.
UPDATE!!
Obama closing in on VA....more in, O at 49, Mc at 50.....more movement and this whole fucking thing is ovah!!!!!!!!!
As for Florida, it has tightened w/ O at 51 and Mc at 49. One blue county in the panhandle has not yet gone online, two red counties near AL also not yet in. Could flip....as long as VA goes Obama, I'm fine w/ that...although I would love to have a lot of breathing room...talking landslide.
In WV, saw that Wyoming County flipped to blue from 4 years ago. I wonder if some huffing patriot went down there and called 20 people about a month ago to help win that county :) .....Not so fast :(
Ooooh, Ohio and New Mexico FO-Bama!!! Fuck yeah!!!!
UPDATE
Crap, McConnell held on.....so much for 60. Hope Chambliss doesn't reach 50% or Martin somehow pulls it off....would go to a runoff in Dec if the former happened. Also, lets go Franken, the only New York jew in that Senate race who's actually from Minnesota.
The Senate is looking like the moderate Repubs are getting destroyed. Just leaves the Republican party more extreme, which isn't good for anybody.
On the House side, things are a bit more hopeful in ridding away the nutjobs. On the chopping block are Hayes in NC, Bachman in MN, and Musgrave in CO. If those 3 plus Mean Jean Schmidt in OH loses, I will not huff a single can of Krylon for the next fortnight.
UPDATE
Close close close to results in VA, NC, and IN...and I think Obama has got them. Well, maybe not IN, but that state is fucking close. NC down to Wilson and Franklin counties, which went red in 04. But they were more pink than red, so even if there's a Republican win there, it may not be big enough to break the margin Obama has right now.
538 and HDNet calling it for Obama...the whole shebang.
Might call it in and go to sleep with these nice feelings. And resist the urge to wake up at 1 a.m., because if there's a repeat of 2000 with states flipping after being called, I would at least like to get in a nice night of sleep.
14 comments:
Thanks for link to the 538 site. Our predictnovember.com predictions compare to theirs very well.
Yes, they do....esp since you update your "predictions". lol
shut up, i updated it like 2 weeks ago and before i had it tied on purpose.
Elizabeth Dole lost. haha
Dole will have plenty of time now to hang out w/ old Bob and his Viagra boner.
O for Ohio!!!
Ohio, fuckin sweet :)
Based on the current map... if every state goes red except for California, Washington, and Oregon... Obama wins.
Wait, New Mexico just went blue.
Ohio is blue...its in the fucking bag.
HOWEVER, I would prefer a 5-6 state cushion, because I feel we're about to have a bunch of challenges if Ohio or a single state is the hinge.
True. Plus, we need a mandate!
Don't forget the House seat for Florida, where Feeney is losing right now too.
Arroz, Have you ever been to Mingo Lloyds? A classy little spot in downtown Williamson. . . but I think they finally changed the name due to local pressure.
Wow, 12 comments. . . I really thought you'd hit the big time Arroz. . . but it's only you and CD. . . wassup with you two? Do I have a chance?
Never been to Mingo Lloyds, will have to look that up next time I'm down south. As for the multiple comments, I just guess my live blawging on election night was more inciteful than what CD was seeing on the teevee. I rule :)
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